TEHRAN - The destruction of critical civilian infrastructure in Iran and the wider region as a result of the US–Israeli war will initially fuel inflation and erode living standards worldwide.

The war that the US and Israel jointly launched against Iran can be considered one of the most impactful conflicts since World War II in both economic and political spheres. The objectives of the United States shifted repeatedly — from regime change, to the destruction of nuclear and missile capabilities, and finally to an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through military pressure and diplomacy. A war that was presumed to be short-term and limited to military targets showed, in its very first hours, that civilians would inevitably be drawn in, as seen in the targeting of a school in Minab.

Increasing domestic and international pressure on Donald Trump due to rising fuel and commodity prices, along with the Islamic Republic of Iran’s refusal to yield, placed the US president at a crossroads: retreat or escalate. Threats by Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to destroy Iranian civilization, as well as threats to target all power and energy-generation plants in Iran — which drew criticism not only from domestic politicians but also from allied countries — indicate a return to Stone Age thinking.

Civilian infrastructure and universities are the backbone of a nation’s development and identity. Military attacks on university environments are not just damage to buildings and books; they are blows to a society’s capacity to think, create, and progress. Vital civilian infrastructure such as the Pasteur Institute, petrochemical complexes, and the electricity grid are the lifelines of a nation’s daily existence. Disruptions to these services directly — and with cascading effects — impact the lives of ordinary citizens, leading to widespread blackouts, the shutdown of factories, banking disruptions, and serious problems in water treatment plants and hospitals.

Trump, who initially presented himself as a supporter of the Iranian people and promised peace and freedom, has, by crossing human red lines and taking unpredictable actions, disappointed the Iranian people more than he has inspired them. These actions are not only contrary to the Geneva Conventions and US domestic laws but are also considered war crimes under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.

The game of chicken

In game theory, there is a scenario called “Chicken,” which can be applied to the conflict between Iran and the United States. In this game, two drivers move toward each other on a narrow road from opposite directions. Because both cannot pass, they must either stop or one must swerve to avoid a collision. Neither wants to surrender, as doing so would mean being labeled a coward. Although backing down is far less costly than crashing, each driver hopes the other will swerve first.

The recent conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel resembles this scenario. Given the 47 years of disagreements between Iran and the US, as well as the policies of both sides in recent years, a full-scale war was not unexpected. Each country attempted to prove superiority and force the other to withdraw — to “pass” like the victorious driver. However, US air power on one side and Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and its missile capabilities on the other meant that neither side fully surrendered.

As a result, until the final days before the ceasefire, both sides escalated toward maximum confrontation. The US and Israel targeted vital infrastructure such as bridges, petrochemical plants, and some power grids in Iran. In retaliation, Iran hit those similar facilities in the Persian Gulf states that are affiliated to the US and Israel. 

This war, much like the game of chicken, demonstrated that while the most rational and least costly action is for one side to back down, in reality each side often accelerates toward the other with maximum force, hoping to deter the opponent. When both sides adopt this mindset, the result is full-scale confrontation and maximum damage.

The killing of 344 students and teachers in Iran, along with attacks on infrastructure, petrochemical plants, and fuel depots, in addition to Iran’s retaliation against US and Israeli interests in the region, illustrate the scale of destruction — and the global inflationary shock — caused by this war.

(The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of the Tehran Times.)